Native Intelligence

Charles asks a question that is often overlooked: why did the Natives make an alliance with the pilgrims? In the short run it proved beneficial because it helped hold off an enemy Tribe, but in the long run it was a disaster because it ensured the survival of the plymouth colony which spearheaded a great wave of British migration. This is a very common theme throughout history. It is so much easier to deal with what is right in front of you than to conjecture about the future and make decisions based off that, but it is typically not wise to deal with what is right in front of us without thought to the second order consequences. So many examples of this: our shift to agriculture, media companies selling content to Netflix in the early days. We have a bias toward overestimating short term pain and underestimating long term pain. That's why Naval says if he is stuck deciding between 2 things, he will by default choose the one with the more immediate pain.